Friday, October 9, 2009

Scoring Chances for Game Number 20029 : Ducks @ Wild

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20029

MIN119:08 68914153279101527355v5
ANA117:56 311172532341319223435485v5
MIN113:35 51117253255714192035 5v4
MIN113:03 682022325145112235 5v4
MIN112:20 32132343667516202434355v5
ANA111:02 891417325579101534355v5
ANA19:36 3202232345145132235485v5
ANA13:42 3592532 1014152735484v5
MIN219:37 520223251551314193435485v5
MIN214:08 8202232515548111419355v5
ANA213:01 5914153255910151934355v5
ANA29:05Goal521253255 810111934354v5
ANA22:13 5111721325589112734355v5
ANA317:50 6811172532910151934355v5
MIN314:39 314152532344581114355v5
MIN314:08 51117253255711222735 5v4
MIN313:31Goal3891415321319343548 5v4
ANA310:42 35212232 78112735 4v4
MIN35:15 68141725321319223435485v5
ANA33:38 38915223279101127355v5
MIN33:19 389152232910151934355v5
MIN33:02 3891415321122273435 5v4
MIN41:52Goal515253255 7151935 4v3

3M. ZIDLICKY15:18445:13200:5301
5K. JOHNSSON21:22132:10301:3002
6G. ZANON15:14210:08101:5500
8B. BURNS17:29455:07301:5500
9M. KOIVU19:48244:00201:2801
11O. NOLAN11:34033:03200:3300
14M. HAVLAT17:44433:40200:1400
15A. BRUNETTE15:07343:21300:0000
17P. SYKORA12:35243:02200:0000
20A. MIETTINEN14:31210:17100:2200
21K. BRODZIAK11:06130:00001:3801
22C. CLUTTERBUCK15:38330:49101:1600
25E. BELANGER10:13323:15300:3402
32N. BACKSTROM51:558107:32603:3902
34S. HNIDY11:57330:00000:1400
36J. SCOTT3:10100:00000:0000
51J. SHEPPARD13:05210:17101:1300
55N. SCHULTZ23:01241:54300:5101
67B. POULIOT5:11110:00000:0000

PeriodTotalsEVPP5v3 PPSH5v3 SH

Note: The Third Minnesota goal, which was scored by Belanger with 2:12 left in the third period, was not counted as a scoring chance. I thought had Giguere should have made the save, an observation that was corroborated by the comments of the broadcasting duo as well as Giguere's post-goal demeanor.


Sunny Mehta said...

wow, really?

i just watched the highlight - first off, i thought you guys were basically counting direct shots on net as scoring chances? secondly, i could see a shot on net not being a scoring chance if it's like a dump-in from center ice or something, but this shot was near the faceoff circle!
*****I'm not necessarily saying i disagree with you, just curious what your reasoning is.******

what do you think the probability of that shot being a goal is? (approximately) What minimum probability do you think should count as a "scoring chance"?

(here's the goal btw... scroll to 4:30...)

JLikens said...

The definition I've employed is almost identical to Scott's, as described by him over at IOF. Here's what he said:

"For me the scoring chances include a clear play directed toward the net from a dangerous scoring area (loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots, though I admit I'm sometimes slightly more generous depending on the movement of the puck and the player) or a screen shot that reaches the goaltender (and again sometimes I'm more generous with these once taking puck and player movement into consideration which sometimes results in a higher number of PP chances)."

So, applying that definition to the Belanger shot, I don't think that it qualifies. At the time the puck was released, Belanger was outside of the dangerous area described above. There was no screen, and the shot ought not to have taken Giguere by surprise (i.e. it wasn't a onetimer, etc). Both the announcers and myself agreed that Giguere should have made the save.

Scott Reynolds said...

Judging from the first two games you've scored I think you're probably a little less generous than Dennis and I, but I think it's more important that we stay consistent individually for now and then rigourously compare the games we have in common.

On that particular shot, it was a pretty brutal goal. I probably would count it simply because I count almost everything that goes in unless it's truly ridiculous but if Giguere had made the save I don't think I would have counted that one.

JLikens said...

It's possible that I'm scoring chances conservatively.

On the other hand, the Wild both take and draw fewer penalties than the league average, which probably accounts for some of the discrepancy.

Also, outside of perhaps the LA game, the games that I've scored chances for thus far seemed to be fairly 'low event' contests in comparison to other games I've watched this year.

To give one example, I thought that the Habs-Oilers game last night was a fairly exciting contest with lots of chances at both ends of the rink. Not surprisingly, there were more chances in that game (as recorded by Dennis and Olivier) than in any Wild game played to date.

Scott Reynolds said...

After so few games it's difficult to tell for sure. Like I said earlier, I think it's most important that each of us stays consistent at first and then as we score more games together we can start to see the differences in our scoring more clearly and adjust from there. If you are indeed more conservative, I think that's probably where we will end up leaning (apparently a lot of NHL teams rate the chances in "A" "B" "C" fashion so I wouldn't be very surpised if some of us are doing As and Bs while others are doing As, Bs and Cs).